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February 3, 2021 Archives

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

CONTEXT: “A Simple Model of Grabby Aliens” Now on arXiv

Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter, and Jonathan Paulson present a novel solution to the Fermi paradox in “A Simple Model of Grabby Aliens”, now posted on arXiv. Spacefaring civilisations which become “grabby”—suppressing the emergence of other spacefaring civilisations in the volume they control—might occupy around a third of the universe today while undetected so far by humans. If humans are on the threshold of becoming such a grabby civilisation, today is a typical origin date for a grabby civilisation. This explains why, despite the “hard steps” model, an advanced human technological civilisation emerged so early in the history of the universe: later-emerging civilisations are precluded by the expansion of grabby alien competitors into the volume where they might develop.

The model has only three parameters, each of which can be estimated with around a factor of four. Here is a visualisation of a simulation of the growth of grabby alien civilisations.

Source code for this simulation is available on GitHub.

Posted at 16:14 Permalink

TRACKING WITH CLOSEUPS: Scott Manley's Analysis of the SpaceX Starship SN9 Test

Posted at 15:22 Permalink

THE HAPPENING WORLD: SpaceX Plans to Launch Two Starlink Missions in One Day

Update: (2020-03-03 20:03 UTC)

Posted at 14:54 Permalink

CONTEXT: Forgotten Number Systems

Posted at 14:23 Permalink