RetroPsychoKinesis Experiment Summary

Last updated: Thursday 2013 August 1 4:02 UTC

This report is updated daily


Overall Summary

Total experiments: 367443
Number of subjects: 33424
Total tries: 376261632
Total hits: 188131904
Overall z: 0.1122 standard deviations

"Subjects" is the number of different E-mail addresses or "handles" in the log file; there is no assurance a given individual may not have entered a number of different identities, either intentionally or by accident. The number of experiments includes only "for the record" experiments, not those designated in advance by the subject as "practice". Since each experiment involves 1024 bits, the total number of "Tries" in the next line is 367443×1024, or 376261632. Examination of the logged bit sequences sent to the subjects shows that 188131904 of the total of 376261632 bits were "Hits"--they agree with the subject's previously-chosen goal. There were, then, 1088 more bits among a total of 376261632 consistent with the subjects' intent to bias the generator. This is equivalent to changing one bit in every 345828 in the direction desired by the subject. The measured bias amounts to 0.1122 standard deviations.

Hit Histogram

The following chart summarises the results of all for-the-record experiments (excluding runs designated in advance as "practice" runs by the subject, which are logged for completeness, but do not figure in the statistical analysis) performed since the RPKP experiments were begun in January of 1997.

RPKP Experiment Hit Histogram vs. Expectation

The blue curve gives the normal distribution for a large number of trials of 1024 events with probability 0.5. (For a number of trials as large as 1024, the binomial and normal distributions are equal on the scale of this plot.) The red boxes show the actual number of experimental runs which resulted in the given number of hits. A "hit" is defined as the number of bits in the 1024 bit stream which agreed with the subject's previously chosen one-or-zero goal.

Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Any experiment involving a random data source can be expected to, in the absence of perturbing influences, follow a random walk around the most probable value. As the number of experiments increases, overall divergences should decrease. When examining the results of such experiments, it's important to satisfy yourself that any non-chance effect you observe doesn't result from the experimenter choosing to show you results at a peak or trough of a series which is swinging to both sides of the chance expectation with a mean value equal to chance. The following is a deviation plot of the all 367443 RPKP experiments to date; it shows the absolute divergence of the experimental results in the direction of bias preselected by the subject compared to that expected by chance, and the divergence in terms of standard deviations for the cumulative number of trials for a probability of 0.5 on each trial.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Cumulative Deviation by Intent from Expectation

Another way to evaluate the results of the experiments is to examine how frequently the result of an experiment (excess of one or zero bits) agrees with the subject's pre-declared goal, regardless of the magnitude of the deviation from the mean value. If the subject has chosen a goal corresponding to an excess of one bits, the experiment will be scored as a success if there is any excess of one bits at all (513 one bits out of 1024 is just as much a success as 527 one bits and, conversely, 511 one bits is as much a failure as a result of 497 one bits). If the subject chooses a goal corresponding to an excess of zero bits, the sense of the comparison is inverted: any excess of zero bits is deemed a success. To preserve symmetry, results with an equal number of zero and one bits (512 each in an experiment of 1024 bits) are considered neutral and do not change the cumulative result. Here we plot the cumulative deviation by intent as z: the number of standard deviations by which it differs from the expectation value of zero.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Intent Deviation from Expectation

Runs by Subjects Histogram

The following table shows the number of experiments run by various subjects, and the cumulative results and standard deviation for each number of experiments. Individual subjects who have made a large number of runs appear show up at the bottom of the the table, and the results they obtained can be compared.

Experiments
Run
Number of
Subjects
Hits/Tries  z 
1 12827 6559300/13134848 4.4832
2 5824 5960466/11927552 1.9168
3 3659 5617870/11240448 1.4043
4 2181 4464101/8933376 1.7311
5 1548 3964437/7925760 1.1061
6 1093 3358812/6715392 0.8613
7 789 2826029/5655552 1.4692
8 600 2458124/4915200 0.4727
9 514 2368377/4737024 0.1241
10 461 2359460/4720640 0.7916
11 348 1959433/3919872 0.5081
12 299 1837133/3674112 0.0803
13 260 1730521/3461120 0.0419
14 231 1655299/3311616 0.5594
15 213 1635531/3271680 0.3417
16 170 1393912/2785280 1.5243
17 135 1175507/2350080 0.6093
18 122 1124199/2248704 0.2041
19 121 1176846/2354176 0.3154
20 120 1229683/2457600 1.1265
21 100 1075419/2150400 0.2987
22 83 934575/1869824 0.4929
23 70 824329/1648640 0.0140
24 62 762315/1523712 0.7437
25 68 870235/1740800 0.2501
26 61 813123/1624064 1.7122
27 63 871253/1741824 0.5168
28 45 645576/1290240 0.8029
29 48 711454/1425408 2.0940
30 50 766844/1536000 1.8655
31 43 683557/1364992 1.8163
32 48 787291/1572864 1.3699
33 42 710887/1419264 2.1069
34 34 591568/1183744 0.5588
35 27 484061/967680 0.4493
36 37 682992/1363968 1.7262
37 33 623359/1250304 3.2070
38 38 738946/1478656 0.6283
39 25 499059/998400 0.2822
40 36 737698/1474560 0.6885
41 27 566910/1133568 0.2367
42 21 451497/903168 0.1831
43 21 462455/924672 0.2475
44 20 450857/901120 0.6257
45 15 344963/691200 1.5324
46 18 423877/847872 0.1281
47 19 457694/914432 0.9997
48 15 368354/737280 0.6662
49 13 326366/652288 0.5497
50 16 409594/819200 0.0133
51 22 574249/1148928 0.4012
52 19 506836/1011712 1.9486
53 14 379718/759808 0.4268
54 7 193741/387072 0.6590
55 17 479632/957440 1.8641
56 15 430585/860160 1.0890
57 10 292299/583680 1.2016
58 11 326449/653312 0.5122
59 12 362567/724992 0.1668
60 15 460900/921600 0.2083
61 10 312380/624640 0.1518
62 13 412655/825344 0.0374
63 14 452068/903168 1.0186
64 8 261561/524288 1.6103
65 8 266473/532480 0.6386
66 8 270253/540672 0.2258
67 13 445967/891904 0.0318
68 7 243870/487424 0.4526
69 6 212266/423936 0.9154
70 9 322748/645120 0.4681
71 9 327252/654336 0.2077
72 8 295314/589824 1.0469
73 4 149532/299008 0.1024
74 8 302371/606208 1.8829
75 6 230329/460800 0.2092
76 7 272289/544768 0.2574
77 4 157606/315392 0.3205
78 6 239761/479232 0.4189
79 4 162332/323584 1.8986
80 4 163989/327680 0.5206
81 5 207292/414720 0.2112
82 6 251709/503808 0.5495
83 2 84897/169984 0.4608
84 2 86078/172032 0.2990
85 2 87098/174080 0.2780
86 5 220155/440320 0.0151
87 2 88863/178176 1.0661
88 7 315248/630784 0.3626
89 1 45777/91136 1.3846
90 2 91843/184320 1.4767
91 3 139739/279552 0.1400
92 7 329515/659456 0.5246
93 3 143124/285696 1.0327
94 1 48134/96256 0.0387
95 5 242841/486400 1.0295
96 2 98517/196608 0.9607
97 3 149407/297984 1.5205
98 2 100457/200704 0.4688
99 5 253044/506880 1.1124
100 7 358282/716800 0.2787
101 8 413509/827392 0.4112
102 3 157014/313344 1.2219
103 3 157930/316416 0.9884
104 4 212937/425984 0.1685
106 2 108628/217088 0.3606
107 1 54683/109568 0.6103
108 5 276757/552960 0.7450
109 1 55742/111616 0.3951
110 2 112340/225280 1.2641
111 3 170848/340992 1.2056
112 4 229540/458752 0.4843
113 2 115537/231424 0.7276
114 7 409134/817152 1.2346
115 4 236038/471040 1.5095
116 7 415998/831488 0.5571
117 2 120024/239616 0.8825
118 4 241043/483328 1.7865
119 3 183021/365568 0.7840
120 5 307260/614400 0.1531
121 1 62175/123904 1.2670
122 5 312271/624640 0.1240
123 2 125473/251904 1.9087
124 1 63580/126976 0.5164
125 1 64171/128000 0.9559
126 2 128874/258048 0.5906
127 1 64968/130048 0.3106
128 1 65799/131072 1.4529
129 3 198940/396288 2.5289
130 5 332885/665600 0.2084
132 3 202779/405504 0.0848
133 1 67967/136192 0.6991
134 2 137337/274432 0.4620
135 3 207396/414720 0.1118
136 3 208640/417792 0.7921
137 1 69880/140288 1.4097
138 1 70624/141312 0.1703
139 1 71128/142336 0.2120
140 5 358635/716800 0.5551
141 3 216374/433152 0.6138
142 1 72469/145408 1.2325
143 2 146331/292864 0.3733
144 2 147321/294912 0.4972
145 3 222983/445440 0.7881
146 2 149586/299008 0.2999
148 2 151121/303104 1.5657
149 3 228586/457728 0.8218
150 4 307356/614400 0.3980
151 3 232406/463872 1.3802
152 1 77783/155648 0.2078
153 2 156960/313344 1.0290
154 1 79013/157696 0.8310
155 2 158985/317440 0.9407
157 1 80384/160768 0.0000
158 1 80734/161792 0.8055
159 3 244373/488448 0.4264
160 1 82202/163840 1.3934
161 3 247386/494592 0.2559
162 2 166230/331776 1.1875
163 2 166938/333824 0.0900
164 1 83847/167936 0.5905
165 2 168827/337920 0.4576
166 2 170189/339968 0.7032
170 1 86917/174080 0.5896
171 2 174975/350208 0.4360
172 2 175786/352256 1.1525
174 2 178518/356352 1.1458
175 4 358236/716800 0.3874
176 2 180539/360448 1.0493
177 1 90903/181248 1.3107
180 2 184327/368640 0.0231
182 1 93122/186368 0.2872
183 1 93828/187392 0.6099
185 1 94716/189440 0.0184
186 2 190102/380928 1.1731
189 3 290190/580608 0.2992
190 1 97207/194560 0.3310
191 1 97737/195584 0.2487
192 2 196641/393216 0.1053
195 1 99196/199680 2.8824
197 1 100895/201728 0.1380
200 2 204715/409600 0.2656
201 2 205561/411648 0.8198
202 1 103444/206848 0.0879
204 2 209659/417792 2.3609
205 1 105150/209920 0.8294
208 2 213287/425984 0.9040
210 2 215776/430080 2.2446
212 3 325786/651264 0.3817
215 1 109939/220160 0.6010
217 1 111148/222208 0.1867
219 1 112187/224256 0.2492
221 1 112808/226304 1.4462
224 1 114861/229376 0.7224
225 1 115213/230400 0.0542
227 2 232680/464896 0.6805
229 1 117253/234496 0.0207
232 1 118732/237568 0.2134
235 2 240535/481280 0.3027
236 1 120846/241664 0.0570
238 1 121802/243712 0.2188
240 1 122412/245760 1.8881
241 1 123381/246784 0.0443
245 1 125995/250880 2.2161
250 1 128051/256000 0.2016
251 1 128793/257024 1.1085
252 2 258266/516096 0.6069
259 2 265473/530432 0.7057
272 1 139725/278528 1.7470
278 1 142232/284672 0.3898
280 1 143009/286720 1.3110
282 1 144776/288768 1.4590
284 2 290877/581632 0.1600
286 1 146644/292864 0.7835
291 2 298618/595968 1.6425
292 1 150030/299008 1.9239
296 1 151540/303104 0.0436
305 1 155684/312320 1.7035
306 1 155855/313344 2.9190
307 1 156831/314368 1.2592
313 1 160538/320512 0.9962
315 1 160439/322560 2.9616
330 1 169191/337920 0.7948
332 1 169748/339968 0.8095
342 1 175610/350208 1.7101
343 1 175927/351232 1.0495
346 1 177270/354304 0.3965
348 1 178012/356352 0.5495
349 1 178566/357376 0.4082
357 1 182946/365568 0.5359
368 1 188552/376832 0.4431
375 1 192355/384000 1.1458
381 1 195222/390144 0.4803
382 1 195449/391168 0.4317
383 1 196677/392192 1.8555
387 1 197695/396288 1.4265
401 2 411195/821248 1.2602
404 1 206995/413696 0.4571
416 1 213097/425984 0.3218
423 1 216977/433152 1.2186
432 1 221882/442368 2.0989
434 1 222174/444416 0.1020
435 1 222783/445440 0.1888
438 1 223835/448512 1.2573
440 1 225551/450560 0.8075
445 1 228040/455680 0.5926
448 1 229540/458752 0.4843
456 1 233269/466944 0.5941
465 1 238314/476160 0.6782
477 1 244153/488448 0.2032
483 1 248038/494592 2.1101
486 1 248975/497664 0.4054
500 2 512273/1024000 0.5396
504 1 258187/516096 0.3870
521 1 267573/533504 2.2480
525 1 269535/537600 2.0049
527 1 270066/539648 0.6589
531 1 271399/543744 1.2829
539 1 275737/551936 0.6219
555 1 283962/568320 0.5253
559 1 286180/572416 0.0740
579 1 296000/592896 1.1636
618 2 633017/1265664 0.3289
622 1 319329/636928 2.1677
657 1 337081/672768 1.6995
659 1 337721/674816 0.7620
666 1 341240/681984 0.6006
670 1 343489/686080 1.0841
698 1 357541/714752 0.3903
708 1 362383/724992 0.2654
724 1 371383/741376 1.6143
748 1 383207/765952 0.5279
765 1 390911/783360 1.7377
787 1 402579/805888 0.8132
792 1 405199/811008 0.6774
847 1 434412/867328 1.6063
864 1 442760/884736 0.8335
902 1 461910/923648 0.1790
973 1 498360/996352 0.3687
992 1 507591/1015808 0.6211
1005 1 514573/1029120 0.0256
1024 1 523462/1048576 1.6133
1027 1 525719/1051648 0.2048
1101 1 563674/1127424 0.0716
1223 1 625661/1252352 0.9204
1241 1 635247/1270784 0.2573
1261 1 645933/1291264 0.5298
1349 1 690715/1381376 0.0459
1358 1 694783/1390592 0.8701
1391 1 711853/1424384 0.5681
1407 1 719699/1440768 1.1414
1458 1 746586/1492992 0.1473
1481 1 758020/1516544 0.4093
1652 1 846016/1691648 0.2952
1742 1 891790/1783808 0.1707
1769 1 906121/1811456 0.5840
1947 1 996742/1993728 0.1728
2000 1 1024947/2048000 1.3235
2198 1 1126814/2250752 1.9170
2257 1 1156265/2311168 0.8959
2296 1 1174949/2351104 0.7865
2591 1 1327380/2653184 0.9675
4210 1 2154581/4311040 0.9045
4223 1 2161820/4324352 0.3424
4261 1 2181516/4363264 0.1111
4601 1 2355712/4711424 0.0000
4731 1 2422549/4844544 0.2517
5250 1 2689581/5376000 1.3637
5724 1 2929525/5861376 0.9607
6371 1 3259087/6523904 2.2434
6565 1 3361825/6722560 0.4204
7436 1 3806813/7614464 0.3037
8322 1 4261389/8521728 0.3597
12950 1 6631971/13260800 0.8628
16453 1 8423088/16847872 0.4132

Results by Visual Feedback Program

Feedback Program Runs Hits/Tries  z 
bellcurve 184507 94467024/188935168 0.0815
clockface 78933 40413249/80827392 0.0994
experiment 973 497555/996352 1.2443
pendulum 103030 52754076/105502720 0.5288
The table at the right shows results obtained by all subjects, sorted by the visual feedback program they selected.

Results by Goal

Goal Runs Hits/Tries  z 
0 85796 43928770/87855104 0.2599
1 281641 144200117/288400384 0.0088
Each visual feedback program allows the user to choose a goal which corresponds to either an excess of zero or one bits in the data stream. The following table gives results by goal, indicating how many times each goal was chosen. The default goal is an excess of one bits.

Control Run Report

Custom Log Report

Experiments Table of Contents

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