RetroPsychoKinesis Experiment Summary

Last updated: Friday 2020 December 4 6:00 UTC

This report is updated daily


Overall Summary

Total experiments: 452367
Number of subjects: 35304
Total tries: 463223808
Total hits: 231611526
Overall z: 0.0351 standard deviations

“Subjects” is the number of different E-mail addresses or “handles” in the log file; there is no assurance a given individual may not have entered a number of different identities, either intentionally or by accident. The number of experiments includes only “for the record” experiments, not those designated in advance by the subject as “practice”. Since each experiment involves 1024 bits, the total number of “Tries” in the next line is 452367×1024, or 463223808. Examination of the logged bit sequences sent to the subjects shows that 231611526 of the total of 463223808 bits were “Hits”—they agree with the subject's previously-chosen goal. There were, then, 378 fewer bits among a total of 463223808 consistent with the subjects' intent to bias the generator. This is equivalent to changing one bit in every 1225459 in the direction opposed to that chosen by the subject. The measured bias amounts to 0.0351 standard deviations.

Hit Histogram

The following chart summarises the results of all for-the-record experiments (excluding runs designated in advance as "practice" runs by the subject, which are logged for completeness, but do not figure in the statistical analysis) performed since the RPKP experiments were begun in January of 1997.

RPKP Experiment Hit Histogram vs. Expectation

The blue curve gives the normal distribution for a large number of trials of 1024 events with probability 0.5. (For a number of trials as large as 1024, the binomial and normal distributions are equal on the scale of this plot.) The red boxes show the actual number of experimental runs which resulted in the given number of hits. A “hit” is defined as the number of bits in the 1024 bit stream which agreed with the subject's previously chosen one-or-zero goal.

Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Any experiment involving a random data source can be expected to, in the absence of perturbing influences, follow a random walk around the most probable value. As the number of experiments increases, overall divergences should decrease. When examining the results of such experiments, it's important to satisfy yourself that any non-chance effect you observe doesn't result from the experimenter choosing to show you results at a peak or trough of a series which is swinging to both sides of the chance expectation with a mean value equal to chance. The following is a deviation plot of the all 452367 RPKP experiments to date; it shows the absolute divergence of the experimental results in the direction of bias preselected by the subject compared to that expected by chance, and the divergence in terms of standard deviations for the cumulative number of trials for a probability of 0.5 on each trial.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Deviation from Expectation

Cumulative Deviation by Intent from Expectation

Another way to evaluate the results of the experiments is to examine how frequently the result of an experiment (excess of one or zero bits) agrees with the subject's pre-declared goal, regardless of the magnitude of the deviation from the mean value. If the subject has chosen a goal corresponding to an excess of one bits, the experiment will be scored as a success if there is any excess of one bits at all (513 one bits out of 1024 is just as much a success as 527 one bits and, conversely, 511 one bits is as much a failure as a result of 497 one bits). If the subject chooses a goal corresponding to an excess of zero bits, the sense of the comparison is inverted: any excess of zero bits is deemed a success. To preserve symmetry, results with an equal number of zero and one bits (512 each in an experiment of 1024 bits) are considered neutral and do not change the cumulative result. Here we plot the cumulative deviation by intent as z: the number of standard deviations by which it differs from the expectation value of zero.

RPKP Experiment Cumulative Intent Deviation from Expectation

Runs by Subjects Histogram

The following table shows the number of experiments run by various subjects, and the cumulative results and standard deviation for each number of experiments. Individual subjects who have made a large number of runs appear show up at the bottom of the the table, and the results they obtained can be compared.

Experiments
Run
Number of
Subjects
Hits/Tries z
1 13430 6866811/13752320 5.0421
2 6067 6208875/12425216 2.1180
3 3817 5860583/11725824 1.3603
4 2294 4695444/9396224 1.7408
5 1642 4205028/8407040 1.0402
6 1142 3509479/7016448 0.9476
7 832 2980061/5963776 1.4963
8 630 2581304/5160960 0.7254
9 524 2414624/4829184 0.0291
10 545 2788834/5580800 1.3258
11 378 2128647/4257792 0.2413
12 320 1966373/3932160 0.2955
13 286 1903673/3807232 0.0584
14 245 1755821/3512320 0.3618
15 217 1666207/3333120 0.3867
16 182 1491917/2981888 1.1269
17 153 1332178/2663424 0.5711
18 129 1188990/2377728 0.1634
19 124 1205943/2412544 0.4236
20 154 1577409/3153920 0.5057
21 108 1161328/2322432 0.1470
22 94 1058488/2117632 0.4508
23 80 941980/1884160 0.1457
24 71 873122/1744896 1.0205
25 72 921486/1843200 0.1679
26 62 826502/1650688 1.8026
27 66 913133/1824768 1.1089
28 50 716939/1433600 0.2322
29 53 785867/1573888 1.7170
30 73 1119690/2242560 2.1235
31 41 651758/1301504 1.7636
32 49 804068/1605632 1.9761
33 45 761274/1520640 1.5473
34 39 678792/1357824 0.2060
35 31 555407/1111040 0.2144
36 40 738511/1474560 2.0275
37 39 737128/1477632 2.7773
38 42 816733/1634304 0.6555
39 27 538975/1078272 0.3101
40 49 1003727/2007040 0.2922
41 31 651001/1301504 0.4365
42 22 473022/946176 0.1357
43 20 440561/880640 0.5136
44 23 518299/1036288 0.3045
45 14 321872/645120 1.7132
46 20 471054/942080 0.0288
47 19 458040/914432 1.7234
48 16 392960/786432 0.5774
49 14 351667/702464 1.0380
50 41 1049782/2099200 0.2512
51 23 600337/1201152 0.4361
52 20 533707/1064960 2.3780
53 13 352894/705536 0.3000
54 8 221263/442368 0.2376
55 21 592265/1182720 1.6643
56 16 459200/917504 0.9354
57 10 292299/583680 1.2016
58 11 326346/653312 0.7671
59 11 332369/664576 0.1987
60 51 1567675/3133440 1.0790
61 14 437534/874496 0.6117
62 15 476114/952320 0.0943
63 15 484375/967680 1.0877
64 10 327065/655360 1.5194
65 7 233455/465920 1.4504
66 11 371317/743424 0.9162
67 13 445539/891904 0.8746
68 8 278695/557056 0.4475
69 6 212266/423936 0.9154
70 9 322748/645120 0.4681
71 9 327252/654336 0.2077
72 8 295222/589824 0.8073
73 6 224384/448512 0.3823
74 10 378027/757760 1.9598
75 6 230329/460800 0.2092
76 7 272289/544768 0.2574
77 5 196887/394240 0.7422
78 9 359213/718848 0.4977
79 4 162173/323584 1.3396
80 5 204713/409600 0.2719
81 7 290671/580608 0.9633
82 9 377678/755712 0.4095
83 2 84897/169984 0.4608
84 2 86078/172032 0.2990
85 2 87098/174080 0.2780
86 5 220155/440320 0.0151
87 2 88863/178176 1.0661
88 7 315248/630784 0.3626
89 3 137098/273408 1.5070
90 2 91843/184320 1.4767
91 3 139739/279552 0.1400
92 6 282565/565248 0.1570
93 3 143124/285696 1.0327
94 3 144727/288768 1.2766
95 5 242841/486400 1.0295
96 4 196963/393216 1.1323
97 3 149407/297984 1.5205
98 2 100457/200704 0.4688
99 6 304254/608256 0.3231
100 10 511802/1024000 0.3913
101 8 413726/827392 0.0660
102 4 209528/417792 1.9555
103 2 105203/210944 1.1714
104 5 266274/532480 0.0932
106 2 108628/217088 0.3606
107 2 109199/219136 1.5765
108 6 332114/663552 0.8299
109 1 55742/111616 0.3951
110 2 112340/225280 1.2641
111 4 227666/454656 1.0025
112 4 229540/458752 0.4843
113 2 115537/231424 0.7276
114 8 467438/933888 1.0224
115 3 176845/353280 0.6898
116 8 475162/950272 0.0533
117 2 120024/239616 0.8825
118 6 361919/724992 1.3553
119 2 122043/243712 0.7576
120 6 368754/737280 0.2655
121 1 62175/123904 1.2670
122 4 249676/499712 0.5093
123 2 125473/251904 1.9087
124 1 63580/126976 0.5164
126 3 193321/387072 0.6912
127 3 195004/390144 0.2177
128 2 131584/262144 2.0000
129 3 198940/396288 2.5289
130 6 399670/798720 0.6937
132 2 135184/270336 0.0615
133 2 136208/272384 0.0613
134 3 206251/411648 1.3311
135 3 207396/414720 0.1118
136 3 208849/417792 0.1454
137 1 70596/140288 2.4136
138 2 141170/282624 0.5342
139 2 142191/284672 0.5435
140 4 286640/573440 0.2113
141 2 144591/288768 0.7704
142 1 72469/145408 1.2325
143 2 146331/292864 0.3733
144 3 220826/442368 1.0765
145 3 222983/445440 0.7881
146 3 224706/448512 1.3439
148 2 151121/303104 1.5657
149 4 304741/610304 1.0522
150 4 307064/614400 0.3470
151 2 154761/309248 0.4927
153 3 235312/470016 0.8868
154 1 79013/157696 0.8310
155 2 158985/317440 0.9407
157 1 80384/160768 0.0000
158 1 80734/161792 0.8055
159 3 244373/488448 0.4264
160 2 164434/327680 2.0754
161 3 247386/494592 0.2559
162 2 166230/331776 1.1875
164 1 83847/167936 0.5905
165 3 253355/506880 0.2388
166 2 170189/339968 0.7032
170 2 173807/348160 0.9253
171 2 174975/350208 0.4360
172 3 264141/528384 0.1403
174 2 178518/356352 1.1458
175 4 358154/716800 0.5811
176 2 180539/360448 1.0493
177 1 90903/181248 1.3107
178 1 90860/182272 1.2929
179 1 91794/183296 0.6820
180 1 92118/184320 0.1957
181 1 92328/185344 1.5981
182 1 93122/186368 0.2872
183 2 187416/374784 0.0784
184 1 94435/188416 1.0459
186 2 190331/380928 0.4310
187 1 95583/191488 0.7358
188 1 96634/192512 1.7230
189 3 290190/580608 0.2992
190 1 97207/194560 0.3310
191 1 97737/195584 0.2487
192 2 196641/393216 0.1053
194 1 99376/198656 0.2154
195 1 99196/199680 2.8824
196 1 100286/200704 0.2946
197 1 100895/201728 0.1380
200 2 204715/409600 0.2656
201 2 205561/411648 0.8198
202 2 206842/413696 0.0187
204 2 209659/417792 2.3609
205 1 105150/209920 0.8294
207 1 105773/211968 0.9166
208 2 213287/425984 0.9040
210 1 107717/215040 0.8496
212 2 217415/434176 0.9925
217 2 222042/444416 0.4980
219 1 112187/224256 0.2492
220 1 112486/225280 0.6489
224 1 114861/229376 0.7224
225 1 115213/230400 0.0542
227 3 349082/697344 0.9820
229 1 117253/234496 0.0207
232 1 118732/237568 0.2134
234 1 120044/239616 0.9642
235 2 240535/481280 0.3027
236 1 120846/241664 0.0570
238 1 121802/243712 0.2188
240 1 122412/245760 1.8881
241 1 123381/246784 0.0443
245 1 125995/250880 2.2161
250 2 256200/512000 0.5590
251 1 128793/257024 1.1085
252 2 258266/516096 0.6069
253 1 129800/259072 1.0373
258 1 132534/264192 1.7043
259 2 265473/530432 0.7057
262 1 134337/268288 0.7452
266 1 136255/272384 0.2414
272 1 139725/278528 1.7470
276 1 141824/282624 1.9262
277 1 141398/283648 1.5997
278 1 142232/284672 0.3898
280 2 286386/573440 0.8821
282 1 144776/288768 1.4590
283 1 144948/289792 0.1932
284 2 291175/581632 0.9415
286 1 146644/292864 0.7835
291 1 149196/297984 0.7474
292 1 150030/299008 1.9239
295 1 151495/302080 1.6557
296 1 151540/303104 0.0436
306 2 312030/626688 3.3197
307 1 156831/314368 1.2592
313 1 160538/320512 0.9962
314 1 160236/321536 1.8764
315 1 160439/322560 2.9616
317 1 161957/324608 1.2181
330 1 169191/337920 0.7948
331 1 169145/338944 1.1233
332 1 169748/339968 0.8095
342 1 175610/350208 1.7101
346 1 177270/354304 0.3965
348 1 178012/356352 0.5495
349 1 178566/357376 0.4082
357 1 182946/365568 0.5359
370 1 189561/378880 0.3932
373 1 191331/381952 1.1488
374 1 191805/382976 1.0245
375 1 192355/384000 1.1458
381 1 195222/390144 0.4803
382 1 195449/391168 0.4317
383 1 196677/392192 1.8555
401 2 411195/821248 1.2602
404 1 206995/413696 0.4571
416 1 213097/425984 0.3218
420 1 216063/430080 3.1198
423 1 216977/433152 1.2186
435 1 222783/445440 0.1888
437 1 224495/447488 2.2453
438 1 223835/448512 1.2573
440 1 225551/450560 0.8075
445 1 228040/455680 0.5926
454 1 231895/464896 1.6221
456 2 466584/933888 0.7450
459 1 234371/470016 1.8583
460 1 235536/471040 0.0466
465 1 238314/476160 0.6782
475 1 243508/486400 0.8833
476 1 243245/487424 1.3378
477 1 244153/488448 0.2032
483 1 248038/494592 2.1101
486 1 248975/497664 0.4054
500 2 512273/1024000 0.5396
501 1 256579/513024 0.1871
504 1 258187/516096 0.3870
521 1 267573/533504 2.2480
525 1 269535/537600 2.0049
527 1 270066/539648 0.6589
531 1 271399/543744 1.2829
534 1 273456/546816 0.1298
539 1 275737/551936 0.6219
555 1 283962/568320 0.5253
579 1 296000/592896 1.1636
598 1 306822/612352 1.6511
608 1 311407/622592 0.2814
617 1 315662/631808 0.6089
618 2 632238/1265664 1.0560
622 1 319329/636928 2.1677
631 1 323423/646144 0.8733
659 1 337721/674816 0.7620
670 1 343489/686080 1.0841
672 1 344395/688128 0.7980
698 1 357541/714752 0.3903
708 1 362383/724992 0.2654
724 1 371383/741376 1.6143
744 1 381071/761856 0.3277
748 1 383207/765952 0.5279
765 1 390911/783360 1.7377
787 1 402579/805888 0.8132
792 1 405199/811008 0.6774
802 1 410228/821248 0.8740
820 1 420117/839680 0.6046
833 1 427130/852992 1.3729
847 1 434412/867328 1.6063
864 1 442760/884736 0.8335
891 1 456008/912384 0.3853
902 1 461910/923648 0.1790
973 1 498360/996352 0.3687
992 2 1015929/2031616 0.1698
1005 1 514573/1029120 0.0256
1024 1 523462/1048576 1.6133
1027 1 525719/1051648 0.2048
1101 1 563674/1127424 0.0716
1234 1 631349/1263616 0.8166
1241 1 635247/1270784 0.2573
1261 1 645933/1291264 0.5298
1349 1 690715/1381376 0.0459
1360 1 695800/1392640 0.8813
1407 1 719699/1440768 1.1414
1458 1 746586/1492992 0.1473
1481 1 758020/1516544 0.4093
1652 1 846016/1691648 0.2952
1660 1 849413/1699840 0.7777
1666 1 853279/1705984 0.4395
1742 1 891790/1783808 0.1707
1769 1 906121/1811456 0.5840
1947 1 996742/1993728 0.1728
2000 1 1024947/2048000 1.3235
2198 1 1126814/2250752 1.9170
2257 1 1156265/2311168 0.8959
2296 1 1174949/2351104 0.7865
2325 1 1190043/2380800 0.4627
2591 1 1327380/2653184 0.9675
4210 1 2154581/4311040 0.9045
4223 1 2161820/4324352 0.3424
4261 1 2181516/4363264 0.1111
4601 1 2355712/4711424 0.0000
4731 1 2422549/4844544 0.2517
5250 1 2689581/5376000 1.3637
6371 1 3259087/6523904 2.2434
6449 1 3300220/6603776 1.2982
6565 1 3361825/6722560 0.4204
8116 1 4155091/8310784 0.2088
8325 1 4262913/8524800 0.3514
12950 1 6631971/13260800 0.8628
16857 1 8629992/17261568 0.3813
44905 1 22987727/45982720 1.0715

Results by Visual Feedback Program

Feedback Program Runs Hits/Tries z
bellcurve 209301 107165293/214324224 0.4346
clockface 131442 67293077/134596608 0.9011
experiment 1239 633731/1268736 1.1311
pendulum 110385 56519425/113034240 0.4336

The table at the right shows results obtained by all subjects, sorted by the visual feedback program they selected.

Results by Goal

Goal Runs Hits/Tries z
0 94166 48215437/96425984 0.4980
1 358195 183393072/366791680 0.2891

Each visual feedback program allows the user to choose a goal which corresponds to either an excess of zero or one bits in the data stream. The following table gives results by goal, indicating how many times each goal was chosen. The default goal is an excess of one bits.

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